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The Chiefs still have Andy Reid calling plays, a breakout receiver in Rashee Rice and an offensive line that protects Mahomes. Why the Chiefs will win: It's still Mahomes with the best defense he has ever had. And overall, the Chiefs are simply weaker against the run, ranking 26th in EPA per opponent designed carry.

The Chiefs' defense will provide more resistance than Houston's did, but Kansas City ranked 11th in EPA per play allowed against opposing QB scrambles or runs.

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In other words, every five of Jackson's plays added two full points to the Ravens' expected scoring margin. Jackson posted a 94 QBR against Houston, and on his run plays or dropbacks, the Ravens accrued 0.41 EPA per play. They were good all season, and they kicked it up a notch in the playoffs. Offensively, the Ravens are on almost as strong of a roll.

The Chiefs were ranked 10th in EPA per play entering Sunday. It's nothing new for the Ravens' defense, which now ranks first in EPA per play over the course of the season, playoffs included.ĭespite the name brand of the Chiefs, the reality of this matchup is that Baltimore's defense has been much, much better than the Kansas City offense. The Ravens' defense didn't blink against Houston the way the Browns did in the wild-card round, and the unit was dominant, particularly against the run, where Baltimore allowed negative-0.29 EPA per play. Let's start with the defense, where the Ravens allowed zero offensive touchdowns in the divisional round against the Texans. Why the Ravens will win: Both sides of the ball are on fire for Baltimore. No Kansas City team has been higher than seventh in either metric in Mahomes' tenure. They finished the season second in scoring defense and yards allowed. But there's a key difference this season: The Chiefs have arguably the best defense in the Mahomes era. The Chiefs are 3-2 in AFC title games with Mahomes under center. Josh Allen on Sunday, the AFC playoffs will serve up another in the championship game, when Mahomes and the Chiefs visit Jackson and the Ravens. After being treated to one premier quarterback matchup in Patrick Mahomes vs. With quarterback Lamar Jackson coming off a historic performance against the Texans (two rushing TDs and two TD passes) and the Ravens' defense limiting Houston to its second-lowest yardage total of the season (213), this seems like a truly complete team.īut don't expect the Chiefs to be the least bit fazed by any of this after overcoming the Bills on the road in another memorable matchup between the budding rivals.

That's the combination of factors working in the Ravens' favor next Sunday. The three previous teams to do so - the 1972 Dolphins, 1978 Steelers and 1996 Packers - all went on to win the Super Bowl. That brings us to the Ravens, just the fourth team since the 1970 merger to have a first-team All-Pro quarterback and the No. What to know: The ideal ingredients for winning in the postseason would seem to be an elite quarterback and an elite defense. (3) Kansas City Chiefs at (1) Baltimore Ravens To get you ready for the two-game slate, Stephen Holder picked out the biggest thing to watch in both matchups, and Seth Walder explored how all four teams can win to reach Super Bowl LVIII. On the other side of the bracket, the Ravens will host the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. In the NFC Championship Game, the Lions will play the 49ers in the San Francisco Bay Area for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. NFL, Betting, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Kansas City ChiefsĪll four divisional round games are in the books as the NFL playoffs keep rolling along, and next weekend's conference championship game matchups are set. NFL playoff conference title games: Lions-49ers, Chiefs-Ravens

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